MLB Plays 8/3

MLB Plays 8/3/20

9-3 released plays +3.09 Units YTD

2 Units Reds -130 vs Indians

            Love the Reds today.  Coming into this game, the Indians have scored 4 runs in their last 5 games and their task will not get any easier tomorrow.  They draw Reds ace Sonny Gray who has dominated through 2 starts, going 2-0 with an ERA of .71, WHIP of .55, and 20 Ks through 12.2 innings.  Fortunately for the Indians, while their bats have been slumping (.206 AVG through 10 games), their pitching has been incredible.  They send Zach Plesac to the mound as he is coming off a shutout 8 inning 11K performance in his 2020 debut.  I don’t anticipate Plesac having the same success tomorrow.  Even with the Reds AVG. at .204 for the season, I think these teams are going different directions at the moment.  Since Moustakas and Senzel were reinserted in the lineup after testing positive for Covid, the Reds are averaging 5.4 runs per game and are 3-1 in these games.  Even with the Reds low batting average, their entire lineup possesses the ability to leave the yard at any moment as they are slugging .404 compared to Cleveland’s .296.  While I don’t think the Reds will be hitting the ball around the yard off a solid pitcher, I think they do enough to scratch a few across and pitch well enough to cash our ticket.  I also lean under 4 for the first 5 innings and under 8 full game.

*Moustakas is day-to-day after being HBP yesterday

1 Unit Braves +105 vs Mets

            A rematch of Opening Day.  In the first matchup both pitchers were superb going 6+ shutout innings before the Mets ultimately outlasted the Braves and won 2-1.  After starting the season 3-2, the Mets are now on a 5-game losing streak that includes 2 games where the bullpen has imploded.  The key to this bet is how long Degrom can go.  We have already seen how poor the Mets’ pen is.  If the Braves can get his pitch count up and Soroka keeps them within a run or tied, I like our chances.  Plus, we don’t know what is going on behind the scenes in New York.  Cespedes opts out of the season mid-game without telling anyone or reporting to the ballpark?  Something is going on behind the scenes.  I will take the better and more focused team at + money.

2 Units Under 9 A’s at Mariners

            The A’s have scored 3, 3, 3, 1, 3 and 3 in their last 6.  They enter the game with the third worst AVG in the league at .191 and are hitting .178 against lefties and have K’d 20 times in 45 ABs!  Throwing for the Mariner’s is lefty Justus Sheffield.  Sheffield didn’t have the best first start, but after seeing his teammate, and fellow lefty, Kikuchi dominate the A’s on Saturday with 6 shutout innings and 9 Ks, he should have some more confidence.  The A’s don’t have much familiarity with Sheffield, but he did start one game against them last year when he allowed one earned in 5 innings.  On the flip side, Frankie Montas will start for the A’s.  Montas has incredible upside but has some command issues on occasion.  So far through 2 starts he has a 3.00 ERA, but a 1.44 WHIPS in part because of 5 walks allowed.  If Montas’ control is there, I think we can expect to see a similar type of game to the first three played in this series in which the under cashed in each one.

1.5 Units Twins -1.5 [-115] vs Pirates

            The runline being at -120 seems short to me.  The Twins have great career numbers against Derek Holland, and with the way the Pirates have been hitting, I don’t think the Twins will need to score a ton.  They have a slugging percentage of .575 off Holland in 120 ABs and 15 walks to 21 Ks.  The question in this equation is what they will get out of their young starter, Lewis Thorpe.  He has thrown 4.2 shutout innings this year, but last year had a 6.18 ERA in 27 innings.  If he can do his job and get outs against a team batting .178 on the year (lowest in league), I’m confident the Twins offense can do enough to cover that runline.

— Odds courtesy of Mybookie.ag

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