Short writeup this week as we discussed in full detail our picks and course layout for the week. The most important factors I want to highlight is that TCP Harding Park is a similar course to last week in that it’s a long Par 70. The rough will be very long this week, sources say it is “ankle deep.” Therefore, I’m highlighting fairways gained combined with driving distance as I want my bets to be able to gain distance in the middle of the fairways. There will be six Par 4’s over 450 yards and one over 500 yards. Therefore, I will also be looking for long iron players and players who succeed on long Par 4’s. For this handicap I’ll be discussing my five favorite plays this week that I feel have value. Check out @TheSharpSidePod on Twitter for our full card which will be loaded this week! Let’s have another winning week!
- Daniel Berger (40-1): I love the value in this number. I think he should be around 25-1 with guys like Xander and Cantlay. His recent performances since the restart have been phenomenal with FIVE top 5 performances in the last six weeks. He fits the course well as he hits his fairways, solid approach game, and he loves his long Par 4’s. Love the value on this number, definitely worth a play.
- Tyrell Hatton (50-1): I got him at 65-1 earlier this season but I still love this number. He’s coming off a poor performance at the St. Jude but ignoring that he’s finished 4th, 3rd, 1st, and 6th. We are getting incredible value at this number after a poor performance. He fits the course very well as he hits his fairways, strong approach, strong around the greens, and is great with long irons. Not to mention, he is very good in difficult conditions when there is wind involved. Absolutely love this play.
- Tyrell Hatton over Jordan Spieth in a H2H (-130): The biggest thing I love about Hatton is that his floor is very high, he will certainly be in the Top 20. This is mainly a fade against Jordan Spieth is not a solid enough approach player to give him enough birdie putts. However, the outlying factor is that his Off the Tee game is not consistent. He doesn’t hit enough fairways. His missed fairways will not give him birdie putts with the thick rough. Spieth will have to grind to put up a solid score and I just love Hatton’s floor and overall game over Spieth this week.
- Chez Reavie Top 20 (4-1): He pops in my model. Solid approach, loves his long irons, loves his long Par 4’s and he hits his fairways. He’s coming off a top 5 performance at the St. Jude last week. His biggest weakness is his putting, if he can make his putts he will absolutely be in contention this weekend.
- Jason Dufner over Kurt Kitayama (-150) (-110 laying -1 1/2): This is mainly a fade against Kitayama, he doesn’t hit his fairways, struggles in approach, and long par 4’s. He succeeds the most in driving distance but on this course that won’t help him much if he isn’t hitting fairways. I’d be surprised if he makes the cut. I love Dufner for his floor. He’s a solid iron player and hits his fairways. He will make the cut and without a doubt beat Kitayama.