SMU @ Temple (+17.5, 62)
I harp on the weak Temple defense every week, but my angle here is looking more so towards the SMU defense. In their last three games against offenses of varying degrees, SMU has not allowed less than 34 points. I fully expect the Mustangs to put up points, so look at an over here.
Over 62
Tulane @ East Carolina (+3.5, 62)
ECU is off one of the most brutal SVP beats I have ever seen. It brought a tear to my eye, and I was not invested in the game with one cent. That being said, I like the Pirates here to get a win. They have been overachieving all year long, and I am still wary about this Tulane team.
ECU +145
Liberty @ Va Tech (-17, 67.5)
Virginia Tech’s defense has been struggling all year long, both against the run and the pass. The best part of their defense is the pass rush, which I do not expect to factor in too much, due to Liberty’s rushing attack. I am buying into the Liberty defense here to keep it close, and think they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, as many of these players most likely were not offered from in-state Va Tech. Go Flames!
Liberty +17, +510
ULM @ Georgia St (-18.5, 58.5)
ULM is atrociously bad, and Georgia St just got their doors blown off by Coastal Carolina. I think this is a good time to back a Georgia St offense that thrives against lesser teams. The Georgia St secondary struggles, but I don’t see ULM being able to take advantage due a low success rate when passing the ball.
Georgia St -18.5
UNC @ Duke (+11.5, 62)
Duke shut me up last week, putting up big play after big play against Charlotte. North Carolina has been having defensive issues I want to avoid, but I still want to bet on UNC’s rushing attack against this weak Duke rushing defense.
UNC TT Over 36.5
Michigan @ Indiana (+4, 54.5)
Michigan has struggled in both games with limiting explosiveness against the pass. While their defensive line has looked dominant, they have been getting exposed by the pass. I think their performance against Minnesota is potentially a mirage, and I am going to fade Jim Harbaugh because I can. Joe Milton had some accuracy issues and now takes on a defense that is rivaling Ohio St in total havoc. Going back to the well with the Hoosiers.
Indiana +4, +155
Michigan St @ Iowa (-5.5, 46.5)
Statistically, these teams look nearly identical on both sides of the ball. Being unable to find much of an edge in this game I will take the points. The potential emotional hangover frightens me however, especially with a bad coach in Mel Tucker.
Michigan St +5.5
ASU @ USC (-11, 56.5)
Love two different angles here. Angle 1: I think USC is going to be good, and they deserve to be a co-favorite with Oregon to win the PAC-12. That being said, I have been so impressed with what Herm has done with the ASU program, and now they are getting recruits. I think Jayden Daniels becomes more of a national name starting tomorrow. Way too many points, especially for an incredibly early start for the home team. Angle 2: I love both of these offenses. The one worry here is the rain and moderate winds. USC’s Air Raid led by OC Graham Harrell and potential 2022 number one pick Kedon Slovis looks potentially explosive, and as mentioned before, I am fully bought into Jayden Daniels.
ASU +11, Over 56.5
USF @ Memphis (-17, 66)
Memphis just got embarrassed by Cincinnati, and I am looking to see Memphis put up an ugly number on USF here. There is no part of USF that is threatening to me, and I expect a blowout.
Memphis -17
West Virginia @ Texas (-5, 54.5)
I tweeted earlier in the week to grab West Virginia +7, and the line has moved down as expected. I really like this West Virginia team, and think they have a very strong defense. Texas is off a very long, physical, and fraudulent win against Oklahoma St. They were thoroughly outgained, and now go up against a team that has been outgaining their opponents by 167 yards per game. I think West Virginia wins this game outright.
West Virginia +5, +170
Nebraska @ Northwestern (-3.5, 54.5)
The Northwestern defense has looked dominant to start the year, albeit not against the greatest Big Ten competition. Nebraska is off a game cancellation, and we last saw them hold their own against Ohio St in the first half before getting blown out in the second. I am a believer in this Northwestern team, and I think they play too physical for Nebraska.
Northwestern -3.5
Arkansas St @ ULL (-14.5, 68)
ULL has been shutting down passing offenses this year, and I expect them to limit what Arkansas St can do in the air early in the game.
ULL 1Q -6
Troy @ Georgia Southern (+3.5, 52.5)
Georgia Southern defends the pass very well, ranking in the top 20 in passing success rate. Troy throws the ball a lot, and there is some wind expected in this game. Last week, Troy went to battle with Arkansas St, which is almost a polar opposite offense from Georgia Southern’s triple option.
Georgia Southern +3.5, +142
Boston College @ Syracuse (+14.5, 53.5)
Boston College is off a deflating, physical loss against Clemson, and I think that Syracuse does enough to limit the Boston College offense. I love betting teams after they get beat up by Clemson, and I think Syracuse is very undervalued here.
Syracuse 1H +7.5
UMass @ Marshall (-44, 55.5)
UMass still has not ran a play inside their opponents 20. Don’t overthink it.
Marshall -44
App St @ Texas St (+21, 57.5)
A bunch of money has come in on App St moving this from -16.5 to -21. I’ll just chase the steam here, as App St ranks very high in defensive havoc, and Texas St inability to protect the ball. App St has the best corner tandem in the league.
App St -21
Houston @ Cincinnati (-13, 53.5)
Houston does a horrendous job limiting explosive plays, but they run a high tempo and can move the ball, which I expect in garbage time in this game. I think Cincinnati scores with ease in this game, and forces some turnovers giving some ideal field position. Love the over in this game.
Over 53.5
Maryland @ Penn St (-26, 64)
Maryland is the latest team to take advantage of the horrendous Minnesota defense. They face a massive step up in competition, especially for Taulia Tagovailoa. That being said, I think last week’s loss to Ohio St was a bit of a dream crushing loss for the Nittany Lions. I think Penn St could be mentally fatigued to start this game, so I am going to look at Maryland early, Penn St live and late.
Maryland 1Q +7.5 (If Penn St does start slow, they may be worth a bet depending on how it looks. Follow @TheSharpSidePod on Twitter and we may tweet out a live bet or 2H bet for this game)
Minnesota @ Illinois (+7, 64)
Laying 7? On the road? With this defense? Seriously?!?!? Illinois is one of the better tackling teams in the country, and despite the COVID troubles, I think they can at least score to keep it close.
Illinois +7
Fresno St @ UNLV (+11, 58)
Being perfectly honest, I have no feel for this game. UNLV was allowing a bunch of chunk gains to SDSU and Nevada, so I expect Fresno to take advantage on the road.
Fresno St 1H -6.5
Florida @ Georgia (-3, 54)
The World’s Largest Cocktail Party should not disappoint Saturday afternoon. I am going to back the immensely efficient Florida offense, and what I think was an improvement on the defensive side of the ball, while missing defensive starters. Georgia will be without the quarterback of their defense Richard Lecounte and I think Kyle Pitts eats in this game.
Florida +135
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi St (-18.5, 45)
This is finally a matchup for Mississippi St to move the ball, so I will back them here.
Mississippi St -18.5
Pittsburgh @ Florida St (-2, 51)
Pittsburgh just had their best defensive back opt out of the rest of the season, and backup Joey Yellen is not the same player that Kenny Pickett is. Pregame I am looking at FSU, but if Pickett does play I think this total is much too low.
Florida St -2 (or Over 51)
OK St @ Kansas St (+12.5, 47)
I have loved backing the Kansas St Wildcats all year long, and I am going back to the well here. I think this is a brutal spot for OK St after an unlucky and dream crushing win. Chris Klieman is one of the best in the nation in these double digit home underdog situations, and the motivational edge makes me love it even more.
Kansas St +12.5, +370
Kansas @ Oklahoma (-38, 63.5)
Spencer Rattler has been dominating, and I like what I see from the OU defense. This seems pretty easy to me.
Oklahoma TT Over 51.5
Texas Tech @ TCU (-10, 61)
Max Duggan is playing well, and the Texas Tech defense refuses to get stops. I think TCU gets a blowout win here.
TCU -10
Baylor @ Iowa St (-14, 47)
Last week, Iowa St struggled to put away the cover against Kansas last week. Now, going against a physical team that has seemingly improved in every game this year, I am going to happily take an extra two touchdowns in a low total game. Also, it is no longer Brocktober.
Baylor +14
UCLA @ Colorado (+5.5, 56.5)
Colorado loses so much offensive production from last year’s team with the departure of Laviska Shenault and Steven Montez, but I expect a program boost with a new head coach. That being said, UCLA just has a talent advantage, and I am expecting further improvement from DTR.
UCLA -5.5
WKU @ FAU (-6.5, 39.5)
Really like FAU here because I think the weather plays right into FAU’s style of play. They are a power run heavy team that should thrive in the high winds and rain. WKU has been disappointing week after week and see no reason to back them here.
FAU -6.5
Texas A&M @ South Carolina (+10, 58.5)
These are the spots that I want to back Muschamp; as a dog vs ranked teams at home. On the flip side, this is the situation where I want to fade A&M.
South Carolina +10
Rutgers @ Ohio St (-38.5, 64.5)
Rutgers is playing with a renewed physicality under Greg Schiano, and I expect them to be able to get a late stop that allows them to cover this massive number. Fields looks like a world beater, but I want to hop off Ohio St after a big win.
Rutgers +38.5
Stanford @ Oregon (-8.5, 51)
Oregon was absolutely gutted of high level talent from opt outs. They will have a completely new offensive line, a new starting quarterback, and down three starting defensive backs. Oregon has been recruiting as well as anyone else in the western half of the United States. I think Stanford keeps this game close, and might even have a chance to win the game. I am hoping Oregon starts slow out the gate this year, so I can buy in midseason because they have a lot of talent. I just want to see how they start.
Stanford +8.5, +275
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina (-17.5, 55.5)
These Coastal numbers get bigger and bigger, and at some point I would think they won’t cover. This is not the week, I expect another Coastal blowout.
Coastal Carolina -17.5
Clemson @ Notre Dame (+5.5, 50)
Massively important top 5 matchup with plenty of playoff implications. Loved what I saw from DJ Uiagalelei, especially the adjustments made from both sides of the ball from Clemson in their comeback win last Saturday. They are still without some defensive starters, which should allow the Notre Dame ground game to thrive as well. Clemson makes a couple more stops and wins by 10.
Clemson -5.5, Over 50
Tennessee @ Arkansas (+1, 52.5)
I can not get a read on Tennessee for the life of me. This total seems a tad high to me, especially with how well the Arkansas defense has been playing.
Under 52.5
Washington St @ Oregon St (-3, 63.5)
Jonathan Smith is slowly but surely turning the Oregon St football program around. Rolovich is in year one with a true freshman quarterback starting. I expect both defenses to remain atrocious, however, so a late night over it is for me.
Over 63.5
New Mexico @ Hawaii (-15, 64)
New Mexico’s defense was a sieve. The Gogo offense of Hawaii will move the ball with ease and cover this number in a blowout. Long trip for New Mexico, but that is factored into the line already. Will add, at some point the Rocky Long defense will return to form. Just hope it is not this game.
Hawaii -15
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