College Football Week 9 Picks

Michigan St @ Michigan (-21.5, 51.5)

Michigan is coming off their primetime win vs Minnesota, whose defense looks atrocious. Think this is too many points in a rivalry game, regardless of how sloppy the Spartans looked. Would be shocked if Michigan St turns the ball over 7 times this week.

Michigan St +21.5

Wake Forest @ Syracuse (+14, 59.5)

This was one of James’ top 5 plays of the card at 11. Getting two touchdowns now, I am excited to cash this. Syracuse might be the worst team in Power 5, but Wake should not be laying 14. Syracuse with similar personnel last year beat Wake Forest at home. Wake was outgained by over 100 yards last week vs Va Tech at home, and they won the turnover battle 3-0. Go Orange.

Syracuse +14

UTSA @ FAU (-4, 47.5)

FAU’s win over Charlotte was somewhat fraudulent, benefitting from a bunch of breaks. UTSA has played a couple good teams very close, and have an offense that can put up points. If UTSA can get a couple of stops I think they are live in this game.

UTSA +160

Kansas St @ West Virginia (-5.5, 45)

West Virginia’s defense has looked fantastic so far, being a major reason why West Virginia is outgaining opponents by an average of over 200 yards per game. That being said, this is the best and most physical defense WVU will have played so far. I think this is too many points, and I hope that it gets to 6 on gameday. Kansas St is historically great as an underdog too.

Kansas St +175

Boston College @ Clemson (-24.5, 58)

The big news of the week is Trevor Lawerence is out for this game and true freshman backup DJ Uiagalelei will be starting in his place. Uiagalelei is a 5 star who should not represent a huge blow to the offense. I have liked what I have seen from this Boston College offense, and with questions surrounding the health of the Clemson defense (best linebacker Skalski is out, Xavier Thomas has been banged up all year), I love Boston College to score with Clemson.

Over 58

Coastal Carolina @ Georgia St (+3.5, 60.5)

This was my favorite spot of the day prior to the news that CCU quarterback Grayson McCall would play. Now that he is probable to play, I am looking at the over. I think 60.5 is far too low for a Georgia St team that runs one of the five quickest tempos in the country.

Over 60.5

Memphis @ Cincinnati (-6.5, 56.5)

I love this Cincinnati team, and I see them dominating all year long. I think their defensive front is far too good for Memphis to put up their usual offensive production. Cincy’s offense also impressed last week, thoroughly dominating SMU.

Cincinnati -6.5

Purdue @ Illinois (+7, 57.5)

Purdue pulled out an impressive win against Iowa last week, while missing their best offensive player and head coach. Both are expected back this week. Illinois’ offense was thoroughly dominated last week. I expect Purdue’s aerial attack to thrive this week.

Purdue -7

Temple @ Tulane (-5.5, 59)

The over in this game made my top five for the pod this week. Temple does a great job at taking care of the football, and does not put themselves in terrible spots on third down. Tulane’s defense has been horrible the past three weeks, and their offense should score against one of the worst havoc defenses in college football. Think Temple could be live in this game.

Over 59, Temple +185

Iowa St @ Kansas (+27.5, 51)

I think Iowa St just had a big letdown game in their loss to Oklahoma St, and I think it will carry over a bit here. I can not reasonably back this Kansas team, so I will fade their offense instead.

Under 51

Georgia @ Kentucky (+17, 42.5)

Kentucky has been one of the most confusing and frustrating teams for me all year. I am ecstatic that they are going with Joey Gatewood over Terry Wilson, who has played like trash this year. I am rolling with the unknown here and taking the points. The Kentucky defense has impressed me this year. This is also a potential lookahead spot for Georgia with Florida on deck.

Kentucky +17

UCF @ Houston (+2.5, 81.5)

This should be a lightning paced, high scoring affair, as indicated by the total. Personally, I think UCF is the better team, and I like them to score essentially every time they touch the ball here in this game. I think this game should be over a field goal.

UCF -2.5

Rice @ Southern Miss (-1.5, 59)

Fresh off the heartbreaking quadruple doink loss. Seriously. Southern Miss is now on their third head coach of the season without a talented roster. It is ugly but rolling with the Rice Owls here.

Rice -101

Troy @ Arkansas St (-3, 69.5)

I have next to nothing on this game, but Troy ranks reasonably high in passing success rate, and Arkansas St’s defense is very susceptible to the pass. Arkansas St loves to chuck the rock, and Troy has done reasonably well against the pass this year.

Troy +3

Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech (+20.5, 58.5)

Georgia Tech is horrific against the run, and Notre Dame is one of the elite rushing teams in the nation behind a beastly offensive line. I expect Notre Dame to name their score here.

Notre Dame TT Over 40.5

Indiana @ Rutgers (+13, 52.5)

Indiana off an incredibly lucky, and possibly undeserving win. However, Rutgers just forced 7 turnovers in a game, which is arguably more lucky than the box score performance we just watched from Indiana. This week, I think Indiana’s offense steps it up, so I will be on the Hoosiers once again.

Indiana -13

Northwestern @ Iowa (-2, 44.5)

Northwestern dominated last week, and I do not expect them to slow down here. The defense is real behind two outstanding linebackers, and transfer quarterback Peyton Ramsey was excellent against Maryland. Iowa still has plenty of questions on defense, and I expect these questions to continue.

Northwestern +107

TCU @ Baylor (+2.5, 46.5)

Baylor is a defensively focused team that moves slowly. TCU’s offense has taken a step back since the beginning of the year, and Baylor’s offense is not explosive at all. Think this clock is running all game.

Under 46.5

LSU @ Auburn (+1.5, 64)

Really do not like this Auburn team, but I think the wrong team is favored here. I lean Auburn, but I do think that LSU will continue to score. Backup TJ Finley looked very comfortable in their convincing win last week.

Over 64

UAB @ La Tech (+13.5, 47.5)

UAB getting some extra rest should have them rested and ready. They play a very physical brand off football, which makes me like this under. I expect an efficient game out of Spencer Brown and the UAB offense, but La Tech will not reciprocate the points.

Under 47.5

Va Tech @ Louisville (+3.5, 67.5)

Another under for me here, despite two offenses that have put up big point totals. For Va Tech, I think they will have long efficient drives due to their affinity to run the ball. Louisville’s offense could ruin this with long explosive plays, but I am banking on the Va Tech secondary to lock of Tutu Atwell and Malik Cunningham.

Under 67.5

Texas @ Oklahoma St (-3.5, 59)

I have been very impressed with this Oklahoma St defense this year. I think this is going to be a very close game, but I am going to side with the team with the superior offensive talent.

Oklahoma St -3.5

Ole Miss @ Vandy (+17.5, 64)

Ole Miss is historically poor as this heavy of a favorite on the road. Vanderbilt has shown nothing that makes me want to back them, but the number is far too high.

Vanderbilt +17.5

App St @ ULM (+30.5, 56)

App St’s defense is coming off a dominant performance, and the offense continues to get right weeks removed from the poor performance against Marshall. ULM is a garbage team, and I have no reason to back them here.

App St 1H -18.5

Boise St @ Air Force (+14, 49)

Boise St has a huge, huge game coming up next Friday as they will be hosting BYU. That being said, Air Force looked horrendous last week against San Jose St. I do not think Boise St will be super creative on offense and Air Force’s triple option will keep the clock moving, so I am looking at an under.

Under 49

Charlotte @ Duke (+10, 55)

Fade Chase Brice and Duke as a big favorite.

Charlotte +10, +270

Mississippi St @ Alabama (-31, 63.5)

It took two weeks for the SEC to figure out Mike Leach’s gimmicky offense. Although the Crimson Tide lost Waddle, I do not expect this offense to take too much of a step back here. I think Bama scores early and often.

Alabama 1H -19

New Mexico @ San Jose St (-13.5, 55)

A historically profitable trend is betting on a team in its first game against a team on their second. With Rocky Long back at New Mexico, I expect the defense to be much tougher for New Mexico. San Jose St really struggled to move the ball last week against Air Force. Give me the points.

New Mexico +13.5, +400

Ohio St @ Penn St (+10.5, 64)

While I think Ohio St’s defense is taking a step back this year, the offense will be rolling in this game. The Penn St defense looked excellent last week, with sloppy possessions by the offense leading to the Indiana win. Normally, this game could be a whiteout game for Penn St, which would be a sizable homefield advantage for the Nittany Lions. With this not the case, I think the Buckeyes roll.

Ohio St -10.5

Navy @ SMU (-13, 59)

SMU’s offense is still good despite the beat down they suffered against Cincinnati. I think this game plays great for an over, with SMU being fairly weak against the run. Add the fact that SMU could be tired after last week’s physical matchup, and I think points come in for both teams.

Over 59

Arkansas @ Texas A&M (-14, 53)

Liked this even more below two touchdowns, but I think A&M is going to be too much for this Arkansas team that is 4-0 ATS so far this season. Arkansas has been outgained by an average of 60 yards per game this season, which could point to a somewhat fraudulent team. This will be a great gauge for Arkansas, but for now I will be rolling with the Aggies.

Texas A&M -14

Missouri @ Florida (-14, 61.5)

Missouri’s offense moved the ball very well last week against a good Kentucky defense, although it did not show in the box score. Their defense also dominated last week. Florida has plenty of questions surrounding them, with all of the COVID-related absences. The Florida defense has struggled to get stops all year, and now they have depth questions. Missouri Tigers with the outright win!

Missouri +14, +400

UNC @ Virginia (+7.5, 61)

I have faded UVA a fair amount this year, but I think this is the buy low point. Not a whole lot of confidence here, but I think Bronco Mendenhall has a good gameplan ready for Sam Howell and the elite UNC rushing attack.

Virginia +7.5

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (+15, 67)

I have been somewhat impressed by this Oklahoma defense this year, as they are among the best in the BIG 12 in defensive havoc. I expect a big game out of Rattler, who has been better than people think.

Oklahoma -15

ULL @ Texas St (+16, 56)

Really like ULL here. They are due for positive regression on both sides of the ball, but most especially on offense, where they are too talented of an offense to only be converted third downs 40% of the time. Think we see this regression here against a Charmin soft Texas St defense.

ULL -16

SDSU @ Utah St (+8.5, 43.5)

Utah St just got destroyed by Boise and SDSU is off a very comfortable win against UNLV. I think Utah St has a lot of questions left to answer after losing Jordan Love. This SDSU defense looks fantastic and I think they continue to dominate here.

SDSU -8.5

WKU @ BYU (-30.5, 50.5)

This is a potential lookahead spot for BYU, but I don’t think it even matters. The defense is too good, and the offense is far too explosive. BYU names their score this week.

BYU -30.5

Nevada @ UNLV (+13.5, 59.5)

UNLV looked bad against SDSU, but this is a completely different level of competition. This is too big of a number for a rivalry game. UNLV will be a live dog in this game.

UNLV +13.5, +410

Underdog Round Robin: Missouri +400, Charlotte +270, Troy +130, Temple +180, Northwestern +107

Parlay 245/1

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