Check out our podcast where my co-host Chas Parada and I do a full breakdown of the US Open and give our favorite plays: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ZlM0wLQ1kX22T0POo30f7?si=odR01R_uTyaB65mzZQb1BA
Also check out our Twitter: @TheSharpSidePod we’ll be doing a huge giveaway for Dustin Johnson where we’ll be giving away free money if he wins!
Major time! We’ve got our first major of the season on a course that is going to play incredibly difficult. US Open Courses are usually set up as the hardest course but this year seems more grueling than prior years. It will be at Winged Foot in Mamaroneck, New York. It’s a Par 70, 7469 yards. Smaller cut as only 60 players of the 144 will make the cut. Five of the last six US Open’s played here have finished over par. Fairways will be difficult to hit, roughs are the thickest they’ve been all year and greens are the fastest that players have seen in some time.
Key Statistics I’m looking for in my bets:
Fairway accuracy: Rough will be very thick and players cannot afford to hit the rough off the tee. I’m emphasizing this over Driving Distance as the rough in the first cut is still supposed to be over 3 inches.
Driving Distance: This still has value as this is a very long course that has long Par 4’s. Players will need to get some distance on their drives to give their approach shot a chance.
Scrambling and Around the Green success. Players will be in thick stuff and poor situations all week; therefore, I’ll be looking for the players with the best ability to get out of it.
Bogey avoidance and 3 putt percentage. I normally never look at stats such as this. However, on a course such as this with difficult greens and difficult all around play, saving pars will be crucial. I’ll be looking for the players who give themselves numerous short par putts instead of birdie looks with a higher bogey percentage.
Taking all this in, I feel great with my plays this week and I feel confident we’ll make some money!
Dustin Johnson (9.3-1): We wanted to do our giveaway from someone at the top of the board and it was hard to overlook the golf that DJ is playing right now. He’s placed 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st in his last 4 events. DJ is winning in a variety of ways, he even lost strokes on Approach and still won the Tour Championship. A stat that stands out is he hasn’t lost strokes Off the Tee in the last 15 events. He also succeeds on difficult courses and already has a US open on his resume. My one fear betting him is he can miss fairways which prove to be fatal on this course; however, I’m overlooking this because of the incredible golf that he’s playing.
Daniel Berger (30-1): Berger pops in my model. He’s the best all around golfer on tour. He’s coming in on great recent form throughout the year of 2020. He won’t put himself into trouble and he will always be hanging around. If he has a hot Sunday, he will be able to win this event.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (55-1): I normally don’t like betting Fitzpatrick because he rides his putter. That being said he hits his fairways, has good scrambling, and ranks 9th in avoiding bogeys. He’s not going to shoot himself in the foot and if his putter gets hot he can win this event.
Chez Reavie (140-1):
Matt Kuchar (110-1):
- I mainly love these guys as Top 20 bets. Both of these players pop in my model. They play safe golf and won’t put themselves into too many bad positions. Their one drawback is that they don’t have driving distance. On this long course they’ll need 175- 200 yard 2nd shots to hit the green. If they can get it clicking from this distance they can put themselves into a solid position. Kuchar is also a Top 20 machine on US open courses.
Head to Heads:
Tyrell Hatton over Tiger Woods: Hatton pops in my model. Plays US Open courses well, loves long Par 4’s, and won’t put himself in too much trouble. This is a fade against the GOAT. This is not a good course for Tiger, he’ll need to hit fairways and putts which are two skill-sets he’s struggling in his last couple events.
Daniel Berger over Hideki Matsuyama: I mentioned above that I like Berger this week. I think he’s a much better golfer than Hideki. Hideki has done well in tough tournaments such as the BMW Championship and the PGA Championship. However, this is very flukey because he gained over 5 strokes Around the Greens and had a couple chip in’s that won’t occur on a course with rough as thick as this. Berger’s floor is so much higher and I love him in this matchup.
Mackenzie Hughes over Cameron Smith: If you listen to the podcast, you’ll see our love for Hughes. We like him as a Top 20 bet and First Round Leader. I never like to ride a guy’s putter but Hughes has proved every week that he’s one of the best putters on tour. He loves Poa grass and I expect that putter to keep his floor pretty high. This is also a fade against Cam Smith, he doesn’t hit enough fairways and ranks 89th in Bogeys avoided. I’d be surprised if Cam Smith makes the cut.
Colin Morikawa over Rory Mcilroy: Morikawa’s iron and Off the Tee game gives him a very high floor. He’s not going to shoot himself in the foot and that’s big for this week. I worry a bit about his around the green game but he’s shown that when it’s a big event he’ll play his best golf. This is also not a good course for Rory. He plays his best golf in Birdie fests, not on a course like this where the winning score could be over par. We’ve seen him struggle in thick rough this season and he has the tendency to miss fairways. I love Morikawa’s floor this week and love the matchup here against Rory.
Harris English over Gary Woodland: Harris English pops in my model this week and I might have to throw a Top 20 bet on him as well. He’s an all around player and doesn’t struggle in any facet of his game which will be key this week. He avoids bogey’s and has a top 10 scrambling ability. This gives him a high floor as he’s not going to give himself trouble on the scorecard. Woodland on the other hand will put more squares on his scorecard. He’s changed drivers this year and misses many more fairways. He also struggles Around the Green’s. Unless he figures out his driver, I think this bet will cash on Saturday.
Matthew Wolff over Viktor Hovland: I’m normally a Viktor Hovland homer; however, this course set up is not for him. Hovland for some reason has lost his approach game, he no longer has the hot irons that he had at the beginning of the PGA Tour restart. He struggles Around the Green and in Scrambling which are two essential statistics this week. He also has found his putting stroke as of late; but, his worst surface is Poa greens so I expect his putting to regress to his normal standards. I also like his price of (+170) to miss the cut. I like the matchup vs Wolff. Wolff shows up for these big tournaments. If he can control his Around the Green game, he will be able to ride his irons and hopefully putter into a good leaderboard finish this week.