Northern Trust Handicap

Fresh off my bye week from golf handicapping. Nice week off and I’m sure glad I took it off because I never would’ve had a Jim Herman ticket in my account. That being said, I’m well rested and ready to pick more winners! Be sure to check out @TheSharpSidePod on Twitter as I will post my full card on Wednesday. Let’s win some more money this week!

Field

           This is the first FedEx Cup Playoff event of the season. Therefore, the field will be highlighted by the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup Standings. The Top 70 players in this event will advance to next weeks BMW Championship which is the 2nd round of the FedEx Cup playoffs. The field strength is very similar to a major as all of the top players this season will be competing.

The Course

             The course is played at TPC Boston which is a Par 71 with a yardage of 7,342. The greens should play easier as it will be Bentgrass again this week. Winners of this tournament tend to be a big name player. Bryson was our winner last year followed by Justin Thomas, Rory, and Rickie. Therefore, I will make sure to have a top of the betting board player in my card this week.

Key Stats

             Longer iron players will have success this week. Therefore, I will be targeting players with strong approach and proximity from 175-200 yards out. In order to win, players will also need to be strong off the tee as fairways are hittable but there will be an emphasis on driving distance. Finally, a large stat will be Par 5 success. Eagle putts will be attainable this week so I’ll be looking for players who give themselves frequent eagle putts on Par 5’s. I believe bombers will have the most success this week.

Outrights

Bryson Dechambeau (12-1): I don’t believe there is much value at this number. However, I believe he fits the course well enough that he’s worth a bet. He already won at this course in 2018. He will be able to bomb into the fairways and will give himself short iron shots which is his preference over shorter wedge shots which he has faced in past weeks. I love his recent form as he’s coming off his best approach performance since the RBC Heritage. He showed he’s still a world class putter. I love him here and he will be in contention on Sunday.

Viktor Hovland (60-1): Smells like value in the air! Finally getting Hovland at a valuable number. He’s coming off three straight subpar performances in which he’s struggled off the tee and approach which are parts of his game he succeeds in. He took a needed week off to hopefully clean that up. If he hits off the tee and approach like he normally does he’s a perfect fit for this course. Love his game and I love this number we are getting him at.

Shane Lowry (100-1): Speaking of value, this number is valuable. Lowry is scorching hot right now. Gaining strokes on approach in every event since the restart except for the RBC Heritage. Finished 6th in the last FedEx Event, I love his game right now and I can’t pass him up at this number.

Cameron Champ (100-1): This dude is scorching hot as well. Fresh off a 10th place finish at the PGA Championship and a 25th at the St. Jude. He’s a bomber so he’s a great fit for this course. All he needs to do is gain strokes in his approach and he will be in contention on Sunday. His off the tee game is good enough to carry him for the full tournament. He’s a great fit for this course and there is value in this number.

Head to Head’s:

Tiger Woods over Tommy Fleetwood (-1 ½ (+110)): Fleetwood has looked horrendous in past weeks. He lost 6.3 strokes on approach last week and 3.4 the week before. He has not played consistent golf which is why I’m looking to fade him. I like Tiger in this matchup for his high floor. His irons will keep his score low and keep him out of danger. He took last week off so I’m sure he’s spent significant time working on his new putter. Lastly, it’s supposed to be hot and humid this week in Boston. Tiger has said himself that his back activates the best in the weather. Therefore, we won’t have to worry about injury concerns. I love his floor and I love the fade against Fleetwood.

Ryan Palmer over Chez Reavie (-1 ½ (+120)): I love the golf that Ryan Palmer has played as of late. He has gained at least 4.5 strokes on approach in his last 3 tournaments. I love his floor here as his irons will keep him in contention in this matchup. Chez Reavie has played fairly well these last couple weeks. However, I don’t believe he’s a good course fit as he struggles with his driving distance. He will be at a disadvantage with his driver ability which automatically gives us a leg up with Ryan Palmer.

Doc Redman over Phil Mickelson (-1 ½ (+120)): Redman has played solid and consistent golf as of late. He gained over 4 strokes off the tee and approach last week and he’s gained at least 2, 4, and 5 strokes putting the last 3 weeks. This is a recipe for a high floor. Phil on the other hand has been struggling in different aspects of his game for the last couple tournaments. I’m taking the more consistent player with the higher floor.

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