MLB Plays 7/29

MLB Plays 7/29/20

5-2 released plays +2.89 Units

1 Unit Rockies +135 at Athletics

            At the moment, the Rockies are playing great baseball and getting even better pitching.  Through their first four games their bullpen has a 1.32 ERA in over 13 innings of work.  Coming into the season they were expected to have one of the worst bullpens in the MLB, so while I do see regression coming, I think now is the time to ride the streak.  Their starter tomorrow, German Marquez, is coming off an outstanding start in Texas and has historically been good on the road.  German pitching at home last year had a 6.26 ERA while on the road he was at 3.67.  In a pitcher’s ballpark like the Coliseum, I expect Marquez to have another quality outing.  Neither team has a ton of familiarity against the other starter, but the Rockies are a combined 8 of 13 off Montas, the starter for the A’s.  Not a great sample size, but hopefully the trend continues tomorrow.  Take the Rockies +125 as this should be closer to a pick.

2 Units Diamondbacks -105 at Rangers

            Both teams are currently struggling at the plate as they both rank in the bottom 5 of the league in batting average (.195 Dbacks and .174 Rangers).  However, I expect there to be some more scoring tomorrow.  The Dbacks lineup has an AVG of .325 in 114 ABs against Lynn and an OBP of .412.  The Dbacks’ lineup will consist of 5-7 lefties tomorrow which should also benefit them.  Lynn’s splits against righties and lefties is night and day.  Last season, righties against Lynn had a .219 AVG, .264 OBP and his K/BB ratio was 8.28.  Lefties, on the other hand, gave Lynn fits.  Their AVG was .267 with an OBP of .332 and a K/BB ratio of 2.37.  In 41 ABs the Rangers have had their success against Bumgarner with a .415 AVG.  The sample size isn’t great though because of the 41 ABs, Frazier and Jeff Mathis have a combined 30 of them.  Give me Mad Bum and the Dbacks at plus money.

2 Units Reds -105 vs. Cubs

            We are getting a great buy low sell high spot here.  The Reds have lost their last four while the Cubs have gone 4-1 in that same time span and are throwing Hendricks who is coming off a CG shutout.  On Opening Day when Gray and Hendricks last threw (the presumed starters for tomorrow), Hendricks got all the shine for his performance. Gray’s flew under-the-radar and all he did was allow 1 earned in 6 innings with 9 Ks.  In the process, Gray also extended his MLB record of consecutive starts allowing 6 or fewer hits to 34 straight starts.  Don’t expect this streak to end tomorrow.  The Cubs have 115 ABs against Gray and have a combined .130 AVG and .200 OBP!  Gray has dominated the Cubs over the course of his career.  His counterpart, Hendricks, has not exhibited that same success against the Reds.  The Reds lineup has 172 ABs against Hendricks and a .292 AVG to go along with a .376 OBP.  Votto in particular has seen Hendicks especially well going 11-for-28 with 3 2Bs and 3HRs.  I think we see Votto and the Reds turn things around tomorrow and avoid the sweep at home against the rival Cubs.

— Odds courtesy of Mybookie.ag

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