We’re back. After a one event hiatus to get locked in, I’m back and better than ever. What an event to come back to. The top three fights are all fights that I’ve been looking forward to. We got Whittaker/Till to see who gets a title shot, the Shogun/Nogueira trilogy and the return of Gustafsson. Let’s get right into it.
Robert Whittaker (-145) vs. Darren Till (+115): Till by Decision (+330)(.5u)
Now this is the fight of the night. These guys have some bad blood between them. Both of these guys are title contenders in Middle weight. I expect the winner of this to take on Stylebender after he beats Paulo Costa. Whittaker is a beast. He doesn’t have a weakness to his game. His opponent, Darren Till, is a Muay Tai striker. If Till is gonna win this fight, he’s gonna take Whittaker into the clinch. I think this fight could go either way. Both of these guys have a fighting chance with the ability to knock each other out. I think Whittaker will be more focused on ending this fight and making a statement, whereas Till will be focused on the end game. With Till moving down from Welterweight, I think it’ll be difficult for Whittaker to finish Till. Therefore, I think Till wins this one via decision.
Maurico Rua (-210) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+170): Rua by Decision (+375) (.5u)
Co-main event time. This is a very good fight, as they both look to finish out the trilogy on the right foot. Rua won both of the previous fights. Both of these guys are 40+ years old. If it wasn’t for the main event I’d say it has fight of the night written all over it. Rua is a legend, winning his last 4 out of 6 fights. Nogueira is also a legend. This is a very tough fight to pick because they’re both so similar. Looking at the past two fights, I’ll take Rua because of his slightly superior striking.
Fabricio Werdum (+260) vs. Alexander Gustafsson(-320): Gustafsson via KO/TKO (+140) (2u)
Here it is. I’ve been waiting to see Gustafsson fight again for a while. Making his heavyweight debut, Gustafsson is an elite striker. I am interested to see how this goes with Gustafsson moving up weight classes and how that changes his game. Werdum is a grappler. He’ll look to use his judo to get Gustafsson on the ground and work from there. Werdum will struggle doing so because of Gustafsson’s elite takedown defense. I like Gustafsson to win via KO/TKO in his heavyweight debut.
Carla Esperza (+155) vs. Marina Rodriquez (-185): Rodriguez by Decision. (+110) (.5u)
This is a striker versus wrestler match up here. Esperza is an experienced UFC fighter, a former UFC title challenger. Normally, Esperza dominates fights on the ground. Marina Rodriquez is an upcoming prospect in the UFC. Rodriquez uses her Muay Tai striking ability to dominate her opponent. I think Marina’s striking ability will lead to her being able to win via judges decision.
Paul Craig (-135) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (+105): Craig by KO/TKO (+400) (.5u)
This is another close fight. Craig is 4-4-1 in the UFC thus far. Primarily a kung fu fighter, Craig also benefits from his judo game. His four UFC wins have all come via submission. His opponent, Antigulov is 2-2 in the UFC. A wrestler by trade, Antigulov will also look to get in close and try to hit a sub. All four of his UFC fights have ended in the first round. I like the under here, however there is a lot of juice to lay at u1 ½ -130. In the past we’ve seen Antigulov struggle with conditioning. We haven’t seen Craig use his striking at all, however, I think this is the fight he’ll do so. Because of Craig’s grappling ability and the fact that we’ve seen Antigulov gass out, I think Craig could hit a KO/TKO early in round 2.
Alex Oliveira (-160) vs. Peter Sobotta (+130): Oliveira by Submission (+600) (.5u)
Oliveira, an actual cowboy when he isn’t wrestling, is a Muay Tai specialist when inside the Octagon. Oliveria is the much better fighter, the only aspect of the fight that Sobotta will have the advantage is grappling. Oliveria’s Muay Tai will eventually lead to a submission.
Khamzat Chimaev(-1160) vs. Rhys Mckee (+780): Chimaev by Submission (+110) (1u)
This is a joke of a fight. This is a quick turnaround for Chimaev as he just fought 10 days ago, but I don’t think that matters much.. Chimaev is the much better grappler, striker, wrestler etc. Chimaev by submission easily.
Francisco Trinaldo (-140) vs. Jai Herbert (+110): Herbert by KO/TKO (+500) (.5u)
Trinaldo is an experienced UFC fighter. Thus far, he is 15-6 in the UFC. He is a kickboxer by trade. Trinaldo dominated Bobby Greene, who we saw win his last fight against Clay Guida. Herbert trains as a boxer. Herbert is the better striker. I think as long as Herbert stays on his feet and keeps Trinaldo at distance, he has the ability to win either via KO/TKO or decision.
Nicolas Darby (-260) vs. Jesse Ronson (+200): Darby by Submission (+650) (.5u)
Darby comes in .500 in the UFC (3-3-1). Darby is a solid grappler that has the ability to dominate big name guys like Donald Cerrone. Ronson is making his UFC debut, however he is experienced as this is his 30th professional fight. Ronson is primarily a striker that will wear guys down with body shot after body shot. However, Ronson struggles with takedown defense. With Darby being a grappler, I’ll take Darby by submission.
Tom Aspinall (-225) vs. Jake Collier (+185): Aspinall to win in round 1 (+250) (.5u), Aspinall to win in round 2 (+500) (.25u)
Collier comes in 3-3 in the UFC thus far. His fights in the past have been Collier out working his opponent to the point where he wins via late round knockout or judges decision. Aspinall is making his UFC debut. ASpinall is primarily a striker with a great right hand. Aspinall is an upcoming prospect with the ability to knock anyone out. I’d take Aspinall by knockout here but there’s too much juice to lay at -110.
Movsar Evloev (-200) vs. Mike Grundy (+160): Evloev by Decision (+105) (.5u)
This is going to be a great fight. Movsar is undefeated in his professional career and 2-0 in his UFC career. Grundy is 12-1 in his pro career and 2-0 in the UFC. Movsa is primarily a wrestler but his striking is very solid. Grundy is also a wrestler by trade. The difference falls in the striking. Movasr edges out Grundy’s striking game. If Grundy is gonna win this fight it will be via submission which holds a lot of value at +900. I think Movsar’s superior wrestling skills will prevent that from happening.
Tanner Boser (-265) vs. Raphael Pessoa(+205): Boser by KO/TKO (+225) (.5u) , U 2 ½ (+140) (.5u)
Boser is coming off a dominant one round knockout only a month ago. Boser is primary a karate type fighter. It is not often that we see the knockout power combined with the technical ability of karate like we do in Boser. Pessoa has only lost once in his professional career, coming via submission. Pessoa is a kickboxer. His last fight, Boser moved extremely well for a heavyweight. I don’t think that benefits a kickboxing style. I like Boser by KO/TKO and also like the under 2 ½ at +140.
Bethe Correia (+130) vs. Pannie Kianzad (-160): Kianzad by Decision (+110) (.5u)
This one is definitely going the distance. Both of these ladies are extremely tough and have the conditioning to go all three rounds. The advantage that Kianzad has is in the grappling game. Each boasts a great striking game, however, once it goes to the mat Kianzad will dominate.
Ramazan Emeev(-410) vs. Niklas Stolze (+310): Stolze by KO/TKO (+900) (.5u)
Emeev has yet to finish a fight in the UFC. In his last fight, Emeev struggled with the low kicks from Anthony Martin. Stolze is a kickboxer by trade. Emeev is a grappler and will dominate on the mat. I’d probably take Emeev via decision here, but at -165 I can’t. If this fight doesn’t end as a Emeev decision, it’ll be via knockout by Stolze.
Nathaniel Wood (-530) vs. John Castaneda:(+380): Wood by Decision (+175) (1u)
Wood is coming in with a 3-1 record in the UFC. John Castaneda is making his UFC debut. This will be a clash of the styles. Wood, a wrestler, and Castaneda a striker. Wood is definitely the better fighter, however, Wood has struggled with the strikers. If this fight were to strictly stay on the feet, I think Castaneda could win, however, I think Wood’s ability to mix things up with his wrestling and jiu jusits will lead to a victory by decision.
Best Bet: Chimaez by Submission
Outright Dog: Jai Herbert
Best Total: Boser/Pessoa U 2 ½
Best Prop: Kianzad by Decision
Parlay of the Day: Boser, Chimaev, Rodriquez, Gustafsson
*All Odds Provided by MyBookie*