Huge fight night coming only 3 days after the massive card that was UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal. Although I did have a perfect main card as far as my outright picks, we missed on a few of the prop bets. We’re looking to rebound here at UFC FIght Night 172: Kattar vs. Ige. The main event surrounds Calvin Kattar and Dan Ige, which should prove to live up to the hype. There’s a couple fights here where the heavy favorite is the play to make, however, even the props we are looking at still have too much juice to lay. In these situations, I like to maximize my value by picking a round or two and splitting units to cash in on those longer odds.
Calvin Kattar (-305) vs. Dan Ige (+245): Kattar to win in round 2(+500)(.5u), round 3 (+750) (.25u), round 4 (+1100) (.25u)
It’s Main Event time. Calvin Kattar is coming off an impressive win over Jeremy Stephens in UFC 249. Dan Ige is coming in riding an impressive six fight win streak, the most recent over a solid opponent in Edson Barboza. Both of these guys are great fighters. Kattar comes in looking like the much bigger fighter. He is also the superior fighter. Although Ige has wins against solid opponents, he does not have the stand up game, nor the ground game to deal with Kattar. I think Kattar wins this fight by KO, however with that number currently sitting at -125 I’d rather play a prop that has a bigger payout potential. Kattar is a notoriously slow starter, and with this being a five round fight, I believe he’ll take his time with a quality opponent like Dan Ige. I’ll probably sprinkle half a unit on Kattar to win in round 2 (+500), and a quarter unit each on Kattar to win in rounds 3(+750), and 4 (+1100).
Tim Elliott (-130) vs. Ryan Benoit (+100): Elliot by Submission (+420) (.5u)
This is an interesting pick for the co-main. Benoit has the better stand up game finishing 80% of his wins via knockout. However, Elliott boasts a two inch height advantage. Similar to how Holloway was able to keep Volkvanski at distance because of the height difference, Elliott will keep Benoit at distance until he decides to take it to the ground. Once the fight goes to the mat, Elliott will dominate. I think this fight either ends in a decision in favor of Elliott or Elliott catches Benoit in a submission. I’ll take the submission because of the number (+420), however Elliott by decision (+185) is also a great number.
Jimmie Rivera (-135) vs. Cody Stamann (+105): Rivera by Decision (+125) (1u)
This should be the Co-main event. Both of these guys have the ability to make some waves in the featherweight division. JImmie Rivera has an incredible resume losing to Marlon Morases, Aljamain Sterling, and now UFC bantamweight champion Petr Yan. Rivera also has wins over some great UFC veterans like Urijah Faber and Pedro Munhoz. On the other hand, Cody Stamann boasts a 19-2 record with his most recent win coming against Brian Kelleher at UFC 250. Over the last 10 years, Rivera has only lost to the champion, and the number 1 and 2 ranked fighters in the bantamweight division. Cody Stamann is nowhere near the level of those guys, therefore I’m taking Rivera by decision here.
Molly McCann (-145) vs. Taila Santos (+115): McCann by Decision (+125) (1u)
Looking at this fight, part of me wants to pick Santos with the 15-1 MMA record, however, most of the wins have come against fighters that have 1-2 professional fights in their MMA careers. The only time Santos faced a legit UFC caliber fighter in Mara Romero Borella, she lost. McCann has the UFC experience and has fought decent opponents up to this point. This one definitely goes the distance and ends in a McCann win via judges decision.
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-340) vs. Mounir Lazzez (+265): U 1 ½ (-180) (1.8u), Abdul to win in round 1 (+120) (.5u)
This first main card fight has fight of the night potential. This is Abdul’s first fight in two years after being accused and found not guilty on sexual assault charges. Before those two years, Abdul was lighting up the UFC with knockout after knockout. His only loss came at the hands of a split decision to Omari Akhmedov. His opponent, Mounir Lazzez, has absolute bricks for hands as well. Both of these guys are gonna be throwing missiles at each other for however long it takes for one of them to fall. If I had to pick one of these guys, it would be Abdul because he has that UFC experience, whereas Lazzez does not. Too much juice to lay to pick a prop so I’ll go with the under 1 ½ and sprinkle a quarter unit on Abdul to end the fight in the first round.
John Phillips (+280) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-335): Chimaev wins in the first round (+130) (.5u)
Chimaev took this fight on short notice. However, I don’t think that matters much as Chimaev is the far superior fighter. Phillips has the experience, but, he has lost 3 of his last 4, two of those coming via submission. Chimaev has shown the ability to finish guys standing up and on the mat. I like Chimaev by submission here. Again, this is a situation where it’s too much juice to lay for a prop, so I’ll sprinkle half a unit on Chimaeze to win in the first round.
Richard Ramos (-160) vs. Lerone Murphy(+130): Ramos by Submission (+330) (.5u)
Murphy is undefeated thus far in his professional mma career. His UFC debut was a draw against a solid opponent in Zubaira Tukhugov. Richard Ramos is an experienced UFC fighter with his only loss coming via a spinning leg kick at the hands of Said Nurmagomedov (no relation). Although Ramos is the more experienced fighter, he is four years younger than Murphy. Ramos has the experience, youth, and ability to win this fight. I’ll take Ramos via a submission.
Modestas Bukauskas (-170) vs. Andreas Michailidis (+140): Under 2 ½ (2.25u), Michailidis KO/TKO (+300) (1u)
These two are very similar fighters. Similar size and ability. Both have the ability to knock the other out. If I had to pick a fighter in this match up, I would take Michailidis at (+140) because he has fought a crop of fighters that are slightly higher level compared to Bukauskas. The best bet to make for this fight is the under 2 ½ even with laying the juice at -225.
Jared Gordon (-145) vs. Chris Fishgold (+115): Fishgold outright (+115) (1u), Fishgold by Submission (+250) (.5u)
This is a tough fight to pick for me. Fishgold has a solid resume. His only two losses in the last five years at the hands of Calvin Kattar (headlining this fight night) and Makwan Amirkhani (who had an impressive submission win over Danny Henry at UFC 251). Jared Gordon hasn’t fought the guys at the level that Fishgold has. Fishgold is a submission specialist finishing 72% of his wins by submission. Gordon can do it all, but the majority of his wins have come via decision. The only thing causing me to push back on Fishgold by submission is Gordon has never tapped in his professional career. I love the Fishgold outright play here at +115 and will throw half a unit on Fishgold by submission.
Diana Belbita (-190) vs. Liana Jojua (+155): Jojua by Submission (+500) (.5u)
Here’s a fight that has two young women fighting to make a name for themselves in the flyweight division. Liana Jojua finishes 71% of her wins via submission. Diana Belbita has shown the ability to lose via submission. 60% of her losses come by submission. Neither of these women have much UFC experience, therefore I know very little about either of them. Because of Jojua’s ability to submit her opponents and Belbita’s history of tapping, I’ll take Jojua by submission at (+500).
Jack Shore (-720) vs. Aaron Phillips (+495): Jack Shore wins in round 1 (+140) (.5u)
Aaron Phililps, at the ripe age of 30 is making his second UFC debut here on the initial UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige after being cut in his first go around with the production. His opponent Jack Shore is coming off a third round submission win against Nohelin Hernandez in his UFC debut. Jack Shore is an up and comer in the loaded bantamweight division. Up to this point Jack Shore is undefeated not only in his UFC career but his amateru career as well. Aaron Philips has shown the ability to knock people out, finishing 50% of his wins via KO. Jack is the better overall fighter, boosting a fantastic grappling game. The stand up game is close enough that Jack’s superior grappling will lead him to victory. A submission win from Jack is the most likely outcome, however, with a number like -115 for a sub win, the best value here is to play Shore to win in the first round at (+140).
BEST BET: McCann by Decision (+125)
BEST PROP: Rivera by Decision (+125)
OUTRIGHT DOG: Chris Fishgold (+115)
BEST TOTAL: Abdul Razak Alhassan/ Mounir Lazzez U 1 ½ (-180)
PARLAY OF THE DAY: Kattar, Alhassan, Elliott, Shore, Chimaez (+340)
*All odds provided by MyBookie*