Back again for more winners? This week is the Memorial Tournament, fresh off a tremendous tournament last week where Collin Morikawa took down Justin Thomas in an incredible comeback. It was electric to see Justin Thomas hit a fifty foot birdie putt and to see cold-blooded Morikawa hit his rebuttal from twenty five feet. Moving onto this week, we’re playing at Muirfield where roughs will be thicker and greens will roll faster. After last week, Approach was a huge factor, the top three all gained over 6.5 strokes on approach. The ability to hit fairways will be a key factor as the thicker rough will play a factor. Around the green was also very important as four of the five guys gained 2 strokes around the green. With the six holes over 450 yards, 29 of the top 30 guys finished positive on these holes so I also took this into consideration.
Check us out on Twitter (@TheSharpSidePod) to see live tweets and bets throughout the tournament. Full card will be posted on Wednesday on our Twitter. Looking forward to another eventful weekend, let’s go win some bets!
- Austin Tarke
Patrick Cantlay (14-1):
Winner of this tournament last year. Finished top 10 last week and really put it together in the final round. Perfect fit for the course with his approach and success with Tee to Green. Only gained 1.6 strokes putting. He’s a much better than this. He struggled to putt early in the week and figured it out on the weekend. He gained 5 strokes last year when he won it. He will be in contention on Sunday.
Xander Schauffele (28-1):
Silently had a great performance last week. Solid approach and solid putting. He couldn’t hit off the tee, if he can hit with his driver he’s right at the top last week. Last year he gained 4.7 Off thee tee so he definitely has this capability. 28-1 is a great number for a player who puts up the consistent performances that he does.
Tiger Woods (28-1):
The GOAT returns! I didn’t want to bet him, but with this number I have to. In the last year he’s taken long breaks from golf and returned with a great performance. He’s won the ZoZo, had great performances at the Presidents Cup and “The Match.” He loves this course, his approach game is phenomenal, if he can consistently putt he will win this event.
Daniel Berger (42-1):
Has played incredibly consistent golf with five straight top 10 finishes. Solid approach game, top 5 around the greens. Great scrambling and great with Par 4’s 450-500 yards. Hits his fairways and greens. I think he’s as good of a golfer as Morikawa, Hovland, and Matsuyama and I think his number should be around their range as well. 42-1 is great value!
Abraham Ancer (50-1):
He is the perfect fit for this course. He’s played incredible golf since the tour restart. Great approach game, tremendous off the tee and tee to green. If there is an area he struggles it’s around the greens but when you hit 18/18 greens like he’s been doing I don’t know how much it matters. My one concern is I don’t know if he’ll be able to get his first win with a field this stacked. I think it’s big for him that he competed in the final group at the Heritage to prepare him for Sunday focus. Through this fear I also really like him as Rest of the World Bet in a Top Player by region where he’s 8-1 and has only Hideki as a bigger favorite.
Longshot – Bud Cauley:
Stands out in my model. Top approach game, solid around the greens, only struggles in his ability to make birdies as he’s not the best putter. But he’s finished 9th here last year he’s worth a stab at. 275-1 outright, maybe a FRL or top 20 worthy.
Heads to Heads:
Glover over Scheffler:
Glover has an incredible approach game the last 2 months. If he can put it together around the greens and putt he’ll easily get into the top 20 and has a chance to win. He’s a perfect fit for this course. I love this matchup against Scheffler as he’s has had three negative performances in his approach games in his recent events, not to mention three missed cuts. I’m taking the golfer who’s finished top 25 in his last three starts and is hitting the ball very consistently.
Finau over Spieth:
I love Finau this week. Approach, around the green, and tee to green has been tremendous. Here’s a fun tidbit: Finau didn’t play last week at the Workday Charity Open; however, he was playing at Victory Ranch Golf Club in Utah where he shot a 59! (eight birdies and three eagles). I’d say he’s playing some pretty solid golf as of late. Also, I love fading Spieth here. Spieth’s approach game is ranked 117th and can’t consistently put together a solid golf performance for four days. I love Finau’s floor and think he can take down Spieth with ease.