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We. Are. Back!! Fresh off our third straight outright win with Bryson Dechambeau outlasting Matthew Wolff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Feels good to be in the green for three straight weeks. I’m satisfied with the success but there’s still unfinished business on the horizon.
The Workday Charity Open played at Muirfield Village Golf Club. This is Jack Nicklaus’s hometown club which originally opened in 1974 and is normally played as the Memorial Tournament. The Memorial will still take place next week on this same course. However, this week the players will hit from different tee boxes and the greens will play slower compared to next week. Definitely will be interesting to see how the players handle playing the same course two straight weeks.
The course is a Par 72 and is 7,400 yards. The longest course we have seen since the restart in play. We will see large fairways so most players will be in good position for their 2nd shot. However, off the tee, players will need accuracy because positioning for their 2nd shot is key. The key to this week will be in Strokes gained tee to green & most importantly in the approach area. There are 7 Par 4’s that are over 450 yards and 4 Par 5’s. Therefore, players will have long iron shots in order to reach the green. I’m looking at Proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards this week as I expect many players to land in this range off the tee. Additionally, scrambling has been a very important metric at the Memorial in past years.
Enough of a course description, let’s get to our winners! Best of luck betting and give our twitter some love if you enjoy our posts.
- Austin Tarke
Jon Rahm: (+1400)
Solid approach game and scrambling stats.
Best player with Par 4’s 450-500 yards
Only has played the memorial once however he places 7th and 17th at the St. Jude is which is the corollary course to this.
Has yet to have a breakout performance since the layoff, I expect it to come this week
Viktor Hovland: (+2500)
3rd best approach game
7th best game from 175-200 yards
10th best with Par 4’s 450-500 yards
One weakness is his scrambling game which is a necessity on this course, however ever since the layoff he’s shown clear improvement in this part of his game.
He’s not a great putter however on this type of course bad putters can win as he won’t need to shoot lights out to win it. Saving Pars will be huge this week.
Marc Leishman (+4000)
Love leish, top 5 approach player. Can hit irons from anywhere. Solid in scrambling and Par 4’s 450-500 yards. Has struggled to putt lately but has had solid putting performances at the Memorial including a 5th place finish last year.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+6000)
Solid all around in approach, proximity 150-175, scrambling, Par 4’s 450-500. Great value here at this price. Has had two solid performances since the layoff. Additionally, Jim ‘Bones’ Mackay (Phil’s former caddie) will fill in for his caddie this week. He will bring much needed experience to Fitzpatricks game.
Russell Henley over Ryan Armour:
Henley’s iron game the past 3 events have been stellar. He’s had the #1 approach game in the last 12 rounds. Not to mention he’s stellar in the 150-175 yard range. He’s also had solid performances at the Memorial in the past.
This is also a fade against Ryan Armour:
Armour has finished 4th and 6th in the last two weeks, but I am SELLING this. He missed the previous 7 cuts before these performances. Not to mention, in his 6th place performance he was saved by his putting. Last week he was saved by his approach game which has consistently been his weakness besides last week. Ryan Armour is not a good golfer. I think I’ll also bet him to miss the cut.
Gary Woodland and Joaquin Niemann over Jordan Spieth:
This is a fade against Spieth. He’s played average golf as of late but he can’t put together consistent rounds for a full week. Spieth’s approach game has been very weak. He can’t hit balls from 150-175 yards and he fully relies on his putter. I really like Niemann as his approach game has been stellar and he’s had two great performances at the Memorial.
Emiliano Grillo over Patrick Rodgers:
If you listened to our podcast you’d see our love for Grillo. He’s been a phenomenal ball striker with his approach game as of late. He’s also had very solid performances at the Memorial. Patrick Rodgers is not a good ball striker. Struggles with his irons and has a woeful approach game. He succeeds in putting and scrambling. He’s had three poor performances at the Memorial and one 8th place finish where he was saved by gaining 7 strokes putting. I like Grillo here as the more consistent player and I will hope that Rodgers doesn’t catch a hot putter.
I also really like Woodland in a get right performance. He took a good two week layoff which hopefully will help his off the tee performance. He’s been putting really well since the layoff and still has a strong approach game.
Bet I Love: Will there be a hole in one? NO -135.
There are four par 3’s on the course. Starting with the holes we don’t have to worry about: Hole 4 which is a 201 yard hole that ranks the 3rd hardest on the course because the slope of the greens and the distance. Hole 16 which is a 201 yard hole ranked the 6th most difficult which hash water on the left side and bunkers covering the right side. Due to the hazards, I expect players to be more cautious when aiming for the flag. Hole 12 is the 7th most difficult and is 184 yards. The green is completely behind a body of water so I expect players to be more cautious especially when there’s a close pin placement. Finally, Hole 8, our only sweat of the Par 3’s. Ranked the 13th most difficult hole. Surrounded by bunkers and is downhill. I expect it being downhill to help us as players won’t aim for pin as they will aim above the pin to get aid from the downhill slope.
Listen to the end of our podcast to see our special play of the week. Let’s cash this week! I will post my full card on Wednesday.