Rocket Mortgage Classic Handicap

“Here comes the money (Here we go, money, Uh)
Here comes the money
Money, Money, Money, Money
Money, Money, Money, Money”

            I don’t know about you but “Here Comes the Money” by Shane McMahon has been in my head all week. Dustin Johnson took home the trophy last week at the Travelers Championship to give the $harp Side back to back outright winners. It feels great to have this success; however, a threepeat sounds a whole lot better. On that note, we are on to the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

            This week, the PGA heads to the Detroit Golf Club in Michigan. Unfortunately, after three strong weeks of top tier golfers competing, this tournament will see a weaker field. Last year was the first tournament at the Detroit Golf Club in which Nate Lashley dominated the classic winning by six strokes and finishing 25 under. Similar scoring should be expected for this year as well. The course has much wider fairways and averages a farther driving distance than PGA average. This means drivers will be used frequently and players will have success landing in the fairways. This leads me to believe that Approach to the Green is a vital stat for this tournament. With players landing in the fairways it will be the guys who land closest to the pin who have the most scoring opportunities. As for the greens they are a mixture of Bent and Poa. Players throughout the leaderboard last year had an abundance of success putting suggesting that the greens are easier to read and that there’s easy putts to be made.

            As for my bets, I am focusing on Ball Striking but most importantly approach to the green. I have also looked heavily into Opportunities Gained as I’m looking for players who have the chances to put up low numbers. Best of luck tailing these picks and lets have another winning week!

  • Austin Tarke

Twitter: @_Atarke

Outright Picks:

Bryson Dechambeau (6.3-1):

            Look, I know what you’re thinking: “You call yourself Sharp but are betting a golfer who hasn’t won since 2018 at these odds???” Yes, yes, I am. I believe Bryson is the clear cut favorite. Therefore, I’ve bet him along with five longshots. Bryson has been the most consistent player on tour in the last 3 weeks. He has 6th, 8th, and 3rd place finishes. Not to mention, all his hitting metrics have been solid. Every aspect of his game is sound which gives him an ability to win in a variety of ways. At the Travelers, it was his putting. At the Heritage, it was his approach game. At the Charles Schwab it was his game off the tee. This week he will need to succeed in his putting and in his approach game to win the event. If there’s an area of his game that struggles it is around the green. Lucky enough for him, the course last year had easy fringe and rough for the golfers to navigate through. One last thing that should be ignored but I feel it’s essential to throw in here. Bryson took to Twitter this week where he posted a golf mixtape of his game and captioned “looking to get that dub in Detroit.” First of all, I didn’t know golf mixtapes existed, secondly, it’s clear that Bryson is hungry for his first win on tour this year. I do hate betting a number like this, but I can’t ignore the fact that Bryson is the best golfer in the world at this current moment.

As for the smaller writeups, these are my longshots that I believe have a chance to be in contention on Sunday.

Adam Hadwin (60-1):

            Hadwin has had three consistent performances since the restart of the tour. He’s had solid putting and he prefers to putt on Bent and Poa greens. He’s also had the 35th best approach game in the last three weeks. While he hasn’t won on the tour since 2017, he’s had four different performances of 18 under or better which proves he has the ability to put up extra low numbers.

Glover (66-1):

            Glover has quietly been a stud since the PGA restart. He’s had consistent play with almost three top 20 finishes. With his third best approach game he caught my attention. His biggest weakness is his putting; however, he has shown improvement in the last two weeks. His iron game will give him numerous birdie putts, if his putter can heat up then he will have a chance.

Varner (100-1):

            Unfortunately, this number is gone from most books. But if you can get 80-1 or better, I love the play. Varner has been a world class ball striker as he ranks 2nd in his approach game and 5th in tee to green since the PGA restart. Just like Glover his biggest weakness is his putter. However, he prefers Bent/Poa greens so maybe on an easier putting surface such as this week he can find the hot putter. Additionally, in the last 50 rounds, Varner has had the 6th most scoring opportunities meaning the door will be open for him to put up a low number.

Favorite Longshot:

Wesley Bryan (175-1):

Look in between your couch cushions and throw some money on Wes Bryan. Last week at the Travelers, he went on a ball striking clinic as he gained 9.3 strokes on approach. His weakness is his putting; however, he prefers bent greens. He will have the opportunity to put up numbers if his irons play like last week.

My Full Card is Listed Below, Message me on Twitter @_Atarke if you’re interested in round by round bets. I’ve had my most success with these.

OutrightsUnitWinHead to Head:UnitWin
Dechambeau (6.3-1)16.3Reed o Matsuyama0.550.55
Hadwin (60-1)0.16.6Mcnealy o Todd0.40.42
Glover (66-1)0.127.9Hubbard o Kirk0.60.57
Varner (100-1)0.088Sunjae o Fowler0.540.45
Hubbard (125-1)0.067.5
Wes Bryan (175-1)0.0610
Top 20:FRL:
Munoz (3.5-1)0.31.05Wyndham Clark0.055
Hoge (5-1)0.21Emiliano Grillo0.055
Seiffert (12-1)0.11.2Dom Bezelli0.037.5

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